Diabetes Cases to Double by 2034

Making an educated guess at the future may just be a good impetus for change. If we stay on our same course, the number of diabetics in America will reach very high levels before mid-century.

Researchers at the University of Chicago reported in the December issue of Diabetes Care that the number of Americans living with diabetes will almost double in the next 25 years. The rates are expected to increase from 23.7 million people with diabetes in 2009 to 44.1 million in 2034.

Researchers also predict that spending on diabetes care will nearly triple, going from $113 billion to $336 billion. Medicare spending for diabetes care is also expected to make a big jump: from $45 billion to $171 billion.

“If we don’t change our diet and exercise habits or find new, more effective and less expensive ways to prevent and treat diabetes, we will find ourselves in a lot of trouble as a population,” said Elbert Huang, MD, assistant professor of medicine at the University of Chicago and the study’s lead author.

In making their predictions, the researchers estimated that obesity levels will remain stable. If that turns out to be untrue, then the diabetic rates could be even higher than predicted.

Why make these depressing predictions about diabetes?

Besides a motivation for prevention, the researchers also provided the model for federal policymakers who may be underestimating the growth in diabetes costs and subsequent future Medicare spending.

The best prevention for diabetes remains exercise and healthy eating, including plenty of fiber and whole grains.

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